000
FXUS66 KPQR 042211
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST SAT FEB  4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL MAINTAIN THE OFFSHORE
WIND FLOW...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUNDAY AS IT HAS BEEN
RECENTLY. A SYSTEM OUT NEAR 140W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH

OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR MORE DRY WEATHER. A SPLITTING SYSTEM MAY
BRING A SMALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THAT PEAKED AT NEAR 10 MB OFFSHORE FROM KTTD TO KDLS
FRIDAY ARE NOW NEAR 7 MB AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS LOOK FOR PEAK WINDS IN THE WESTERN END OF THE
GORGE CLOSER TO 50 MPH ON SUNDAY VERSUS THE OVER 70 MPH THAT OCCURRED
AT CROWN POINT FRIDAY. WE MIGHT START TO SEE A LITTLE FOG FORM THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY NORTH OF KELSO. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR RATHER COLD MORNINGS IN
WIND SHELTERED AREAS AND A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

THERE IS A DECENT LOOKING SYSTEM OUT NEAR 140W EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODELS ALL SAY IT WILL LIFT NORTH BUT REMAIN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM IT INLAND. THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS MIGHT GET BRUSHED WITH
A FEW SPRINKLES...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WINDS TURN A BIT SOUTHERLY AGAIN...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
WHETHER ANY OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL REACH THE COAST. THE WINDS
TURN MORE OFFSHORE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON PUSH ANY LOW CLOUDS AWAY.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAIN EFFECT IS AN INCREASE IN
THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW...SO LOOK FOR MORE EASTERLY BREEZES AND A
MINIMUM OF FOG. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE SPLITTING AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA TUESDAY SO WE WILL SEE IF WE GET MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION
FROM IT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN BRING A TROUGH TO THE COAST TUE
EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITS AND A CUTOFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO
CALIF. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE...MOST DYNAMICS HEAD INTO N
CALIF ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS LIKELY TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDING TO SOME EXTENT WED...THOUGH HOW LONG IT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA IS UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE BY LATER FRIDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARD A
MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND THOUGH IT SUPPORTS
A SPLITTING PATTERN WHICH COULD INDICATE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE CWA. KELSON

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT
THROUGH TONIGHT. ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING KSLE SOUTHWARD AFTER 12Z SUN MORNING. SOME AREAS OF
MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE KCZK EASTWARD.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
NEAR THE GORGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
EAST WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...EAST WINDS ARE LOCALLY GUSTING TO 25 KT BELOW COASTAL
CANYONS TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUES
TO GENERATE WEST SWELL 10 TO 12 FT TODAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LOOKS TO BE MON AND
TUE...WITH E-SE WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SWELL ARRIVES TUE BRINGING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

Weather information courtesy of NOAA and AviationWeather.gov

© Willamette Aviation Service, LLC